What Will Agriculture Look Like In 2050?

Our global agriculture system is on the brink of crisis. New data from Nasa shows extreme weather has risen dramatically in recent years, with floods, fires and droughts becoming longer-lasting and more severe. This is having a significant impact on food production, and creating increasingly difficult conditions for farmers. Yet, as science writer Dr Sarah Bearchall points out in her latest book, while our agricultural system is clearly a victim of climate change, it’s also a perpetrator, accounting for a quarter of carbon emissions.

In The Future of Agriculture, Sarah delves into this key paradox, painting a picture of the current state of global farming as well as predicting how the future will look if we continue on this trajectory. She explores some of the biggest challenges in agriculture today, from the impact of meat production to growing populations, and highlights the key drivers for change – as well as looking at the innovations which are already transforming our farming and food systems. We hear more below.

Dr Sarah Bearchell On The Future of Agriculture

Tell us about your new book. Why was now the time to write it?

In the UK, agriculture has been quietly going about the business of feeding us for decades, but in the last few years, it’s been making headline news. We’ve gone from the wettest 18 months since 1836, into drought conditions and then hosepipe bans from Yorkshire to Sussex. Of course, extreme weather events have always happened, but not back-to-back. When you add in the politics of post-Brexit funding and inheritance tax, it’s no wonder we’re seeing farmer protests across the UK. 

And it’s not just here that farmers are struggling with changing conditions. You might have noticed the price of olive oil has more than tripled in the last five years – that’s largely driven by droughts in southern Spain, made worse by climate change. 

Food production is becoming more erratic, we’ve lost the centuries-old certainties of what to plant and when. That’s something I never expected to see in my lifetime, let alone in the space of about 30 years. The book explores these changes but also describes the work of research scientists and experienced farmers who are providing solutions from the technological to the ecological – it’s going to take a mixture of approaches if we are going to feed a growing population.

How is agriculture impacting the climate?

Seeing a farmer standing in their flooded crop makes it easy to see agriculture as the victim of climate change. However, it’s estimated that around a third of all greenhouse gas emissions originate from agriculture and our food system. By that I mean every stage of food production, from the tilling of the soil and choice of livestock, through to the machinery used for harvest and processing, to the packaging and transport of food to the end consumer – and the waste which happens along the way. All are responsible for greenhouse gas emissions. 

But these huge emissions put agriculture in a position of power towards climate change. If we can reduce emissions at every step of the food system, we can have a huge impact on climate change.

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What are the biggest problems in agriculture today?

What a huge question! A global food system means that the price of our food depends on everything from the rainfall in Chile, to international conflicts and the employment policies of countries thousands of miles away. It’s a system which has evolved over decades into a tangled web of supply chains dominated by an alarmingly small number of multinational companies. Change will require international cooperation, and that’s difficult.

The Green Revolution of the last century saw yields increase due to new varieties, machinery and chemicals to optimise growth. This intensification enabled us to produce more food on less land to feed a growing population. It was truly revolutionary. However, we now realise that these methods have been incredibly damaging to soil health and water quality as well as producing huge amounts of greenhouse gas emissions. We need to change the way we farm to take greater account of its impact on the environment.

And then there is our role as consumers. We have become accustomed to a diet rich in meat and dairy, which requires more land, water and resources to produce than a plant-rich diet. We also expect fruits and vegetables to be available all year round, so we create extra emissions by flying food in from warmer places or by using electricity to heat and light glasshouses through the winter. Our demands shape both the market and political policies, so we are not powerless to affect change.

What are the key changes needed in our food system?

Leaving change to the market is what has got us where we are, so we need international cooperation and long-term planning at the government level. We need farm funding schemes which last for more than a couple of years at a time. Farmers need to know where they can invest money on long term projects, like perennial crops and regenerative farming, which acts to increase soil health with the aim of improving plant health. That will reduce the need for chemical inputs and produce fewer emissions, but the yields will be lower as it takes time for the soil to recover, so it’s not the whole answer.

The government also needs to look at food security – how can we grow more of our food in the UK? We have limited land where food and animals can be grown, so we need to use it wisely. We use millions of hectares to grow wheat and barley to feed livestock and we could use that land to grow food directly for humans if we reduced the amount of meat and dairy in our diets.  

If cheaper renewable energy were available, we could intensify the production of more tender salad and fruit crops through the use of artificial lighting and heating in vertical farms and glasshouses, thus reducing the need for imports. But that needs more windfarms, solar farms and battery storage – all in the power (if you’ll excuse the pun) of the government.

It will also take government intervention to shift eating habits, by adding taxes to the most polluting foods and subsidies to those with a lesser impact. We also need education around food waste because around 25 percent of all calories grown are wasted rather than consumed. And that is disgraceful. 

The problems are multiple and complex but not insurmountable. We just need to start acting now, and that’s something we can all take charge of for ourselves – starting with cutting our food waste.

How can the meat industry reduce its impact?

Every day, cattle are producing up to 500 litres of methane each. It’s a powerful greenhouse gas and when you multiply that by the world cattle population of 1.57 billion (2023, latest data), it becomes clear where a lot of agriculture’s emissions originate. We are already seeing trials of food additives which reduce the amount of gas produced, and methods which speed up weight gain so that animals produce gas for fewer days before slaughter. This optimisation of production will reduce emissions, but only by a small proportion. 

Less intensively farmed animals, such as outdoor reared cattle, actually improve soil health as they spread their manure across a wide area. But it takes longer to raise the animal to slaughter weight which means it costs more at market and produces more emissions through its longer life. It also takes a lot of land for grazing, although in the UK, it’s often on land where crops cannot be grown.

The biggest way to reduce the impact of meat is to reduce the amount of meat eaten, and to eat less of the animals which produce the most emissions. Younger age groups are already doing this, but it is unclear whether this is a lifestyle choice or brought on by rising prices. Whatever the cause, as we shift towards eating more chicken, we must not lose sight of the animal welfare and groundwater pollution issues which can arise from their intensive farming. 

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Which foods are being most threatened by climate change?

It’s largely crops which need very specific conditions and I cover the story of coffee in the book – each time you see a price rise in a coffee shop or supermarket, you can be sure part of it will be due to climate change causing a poor harvest. 

In the UK, we grow crops which thrive in the conditions which we used to have, when we could predict what a growing season would be like. If farmers had switched to crops for wetter soils because of the extra rainfall in 2023 – 2024, they would be utterly devastated by a year of drought like 2025. It’s the unpredictability caused by climate change which is the problem. 

Is water security under threat? 

This is one of the rabbit holes I went down while researching the book. The politics of water rights are going to become increasingly fraught. I covered it a little with respect to avocado farming, but it’s complex enough to fill an entire book!

What’s your view on Clarkson’s Farm? 

Clarkson’s Farm is about a media personality who loves all kinds of machinery and bought a farm with apparently zero knowledge of agriculture. Who isn’t going to be entertained by Jeremy Clarkson’s plan to spray a field using a hovercraft or his enduring battle with tractor technology? I’m sure I’m not alone in shouting at the screen as I watch it – but the laughter comes in equal measure.

The farm’s success is down to the skilled team which surrounds him and it’s great to hear their insights into the joys and frustrations of UK farming. It’s helped make people much more aware about how food is grown and what is happening in the fields which they travel past… and I’m all for that.

Can you tell us about some of the ways technology and automation are helping the farming industry?

From robot milkers to precision agriculture and even entirely automated glasshouses, there are some incredible innovations out there. They all aim to precisely target every input – from nutrition to pesticides – to optimise efficiency while reducing emissions. It’s genuinely amazing what technology is helping agriculture to achieve. There are too many examples to cover here – you’ll have to read the book!

What can consumers do to help?

The main thing we can do is to think carefully about what we eat. If you’re making a ham and cheese salad sandwich, could you cut the cheese thinner, not add the ham, reduce the thickness of mayonnaise or use locally grown seasonal salad? Maybe you could have peanut butter instead.

I’ve been to several events recently where only vegetarian and vegan food was offered – that reduces waste through fewer choices, but also has a lower emissions footprint. We are making choices all the time and small choices can add up. Our purchasing power ultimately drives the market and influences political opinion, so we have more power than we might at first believe.

If we don’t make big changes, what will the agriculture industry look like in 2050?

2050 sounds like a long time in the future, but it’s only 25 years away. The UK’s hottest five summers have happened in the last 25 years, all surpassing the legendarily hot summer of 1976. Extremes of wet and dry, hot and cold are becoming commonplace, making it harder for farmers to predict the best crop to sow for the season – so in some years there are devastating losses, causing a rise in food prices and pushing farmers out of business. Where will our food come from without them?

My biggest fears are around politicians abandoning net zero targets and cutting funding to win votes. It’s incredibly short-term, selfish thinking. Acting on climate change is unpopular because it will cost money at a time when all our services are stretched to the limit. But we have to invest now, to improve renewable energy infrastructure, to change our farming methods, reduce waste and improve UK food security. Feeding people is a basic goal for any government and we need some long-term strategic thinking to make it happen.  

The Future of Agriculture by Dr Sarah Bearchall is out now